Posts

Should Indians Invest in US?

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The rescent AI boom has brought US main stream, with many wondering whether investing in the US is better than investing in India. And for a a very long I used to believe India was the place to invest.  My initial thesis was that India is a developing country, growing at an average of 12% annualized return, while America being a developed country, only grew at an average of 8%. The initial analysis was too shallow of course and didnt account for the rupee depreciation. If we plugin an average rupee depreciation of 3%, the US assetss would come closer to 11%. These are of course, just thumb rules to do an easy math, A 1% difference is ofcourse a rounding error, and so should be the same - but is it accurate? I wanted to see the data myself, was my assumption correct? Afterall, Warren Buffet would disagree with such a thesis. “Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America,” _Warren Buff...

How to start Investing

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Lurking in reddit, one of the most common questions I find is how to start investing. Some come with randomly picked mutual funds and others directly ask it. Unfortunately,  there is no structured way to teach it and I too started the same way -  simply  picking random funds, understanding things and then improving. Now that I have obsessed over the topic for nearly a decade, I think I am qualified to give an advice -  or atleast attempt to. However before I get into the actual process, I highly recommend doing the following two things :  Adequate Emergency Fund Adequate Medical Cover The reason I call this mandatory is because Equity is lumpy. It can go on for years without any returns whatsoever. Please refer to the below chart of nifty 500. As you can see from the chart, the market spends a long time doing nothing or at a loss. This is to be expected. For multiple years, the market does nothing, and then it in one shot, it will reward your patience before tes...

Quant's VLRT under the hood

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I never liked Quant flex cap ever since I first heard of it. To me the reason to buy an active fund is philosophy - ie Value, growth, quality, momentum etc. Without this philosophy, an active fund is simply a trader in my view - and on the surface level, since Quant showcased itself as a magical crystal ball that can predict the future - my red flags were immediately waving. But I ignored it - why look at a fund manager who you disagree with? However, the fund kept coming back to me with people on reddit asking opinions, to it being listed as the best performer etc - and I just commented back it is not something I personally like without giving a reason. But then Value Research hosted Sandeep Tandon - and that was the last straw that broke the camel's back. I decided to look under the hood: 1. High Portfolio Turnover Ratio 2. Aggressive Sector Rotation based on high-beta stocks 3. Liquidity and Risk Appetite (as described by quant of VLRT model) These cha...

I Bought Hundreds Of Funds & It Didn't Diworsify

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I have been hearing this absurd logic for years. “If you buy too many mutual funds, you just end up with an expensive index fund.” I never thought much about it because I always knew it was more of a rhetoric than a fact. But rescently I am seeing people who has some knowledge in finace berate people who are not financially savvy for unintentionally/unknowingly buy too many funds than they need. And interestingly, the people who are supposed to be financially savvy, couldnt comprehend how it couldnt create an index. I guess if you r epeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth. Heck even the AI, which is supposed to be voice of obective reason kept reverting back to statements like "It will cancel each out" to  create an index. How can I blame the less savvy, when they are fed this idiocracy? And so, I built an anti-rhetoric to fight it,  and mine goes like this - Even buying hundreds of active funds, randomly picked -will not re-create the index - the people who...

4% Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Valid For India

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I have been thinking about retirement for the past decade. “If you don’t find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die.” _ Warren Buffet That is the quote that got me obsessed with it — I didn't want to work till I die. I suppose nobody does. Even though I have the dream to retire early and obsess over it, the standard advice I hear everywhere is to work till you die. Isn't that a bummer? They defend the idea by putting a positive spin on it, claiming it is your fault for not choosing work that you like. I suppose the argument has some merit, since life is known to be a bitch! I concede that safety lies in having an active income, but the most valuable asset you can ever own is time—the ability to do whatever you want, whenever you want to do it. Now, conquering time is not possible if you are dependent on an active income, because an active income requires your performance, your productivity, your politics etc. Don't get me wro...